PolyforecastBeta

Evidence-backed forecasts for Polymarket.

Citations, probability deltas vs market, and a public accuracy log.

View PlansSee Example Forecast
  • Citations on every forecast
  • Public accuracy log
  • No trading advice—info only

What You Get

Built for clear, auditable forecasting

Pro includes the full report format below, with citations and model deltas against market baseline.

  • Probability delta vs market baseline

    See where the model differs from current market pricing, not just the top outcome.

  • Citations on every report

    Each forecast includes source links so you can verify reasoning quickly.

  • What would change our view

    Clear invalidation conditions so updates are grounded and auditable.

  • Public accuracy log

    Resolved outcomes are tracked in a transparent, timestamped record.

Sample Data

Example forecast report

This preview shows how a Pro report is structured before launch data is available.

Baseline vs model

Outcome probabilities

  • Yes

    Model 62.0% | Baseline 54.0%

    +8.0 pts

  • No

    Model 38.0% | Baseline 46.0%

    -8.0 pts

Evidence citations

What would change our view

  • Core CPI prints 0.4+ points above consensus.
  • Two-year yield rises above the prior weekly range.
  • Fed communication signals a materially higher terminal rate.

Plans

Choose the level of forecast coverage

Start free, then upgrade when you need more markets and full report context.

Free

$0/month

Monitor selected markets and review public outcomes.

  • 2 watched markets
  • Daily digest
  • Public accuracy log access
Join Free

Pro

$39/month

Get full reports with citations, probability deltas, and change triggers.

  • 50 watched markets
  • 15-minute forecast refresh
  • Evidence-backed report detail
Get Pro Access

Desk

$149/month

Coordinate team workflows across high-volume market coverage.

  • 250 watched markets
  • Team seats + permission controls
  • Priority support + data exports
Contact for Desk

Forecasts Logged

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Active Markets

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Resolved Markets

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Open Calls

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Total Users

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Pro + Admin

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Settled outcomes log

0 tracked

Not started yet

Resolved outcomes appear here once monitored markets close. The report above is labeled sample data for format preview.

Recent forecast log

Live when active

Not started yet

New forecast entries will appear here as soon as the first markets are queued.

FAQ

Common questions

Is this financial advice?

No. Polyforecast provides informational forecasting reports only. It does not provide trading, investment, or legal advice.

How is accuracy tracked?

Each forecast is timestamped at publication. Once a market resolves, the forecast outcome is compared to the resolved result and logged publicly.

How often do forecasts refresh?

Free updates are provided in a daily digest. Pro refreshes monitored markets approximately every 15 minutes.

What sources are used?

Reports cite primary public sources such as official releases, market data pages, and institutional publications.

Why might a forecast match the market?

Some forecasts confirm the existing market baseline. In those cases the report explains why no meaningful divergence was detected.

Compare Free / Pro / Desk